This position paper summarizes the current understanding of climate change, the history and status of the Kyoto Protocol and the potential impacts on building technologies. It also provides an indication of ASHRAE’s role in reducing GHG emissions and ASHRAE’s recommendations for possible actions. The document is written from an international perspective.

1.0 CURRENT UNDERSTANDING OF CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE

Global climate is controlled by the energy equilibrium between incoming and outgoing energy of the earth, which is largely regulated by the interaction of the composition of terrestrial sinks and the atmosphere. Approximately one-third of the solar radiation (sunlight) reaching the earth is reflected back into space by clouds, small particles in the atmosphere, and the earth’s surface. The remaining energy is absorbed by the surface and by gases in the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO₂) and water vapor, as well as small particles trap heat at, and near, the surface – maintaining the average temperature of the earth’s surface about 33 °C (60 °F) warmer than would be the case if these gases and particles were not present.

When GHG releases to the atmosphere increase, the environment may be altered. Carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF₆) are contributing GHGs. Chlorofluorocarbons, HCFCs, and HFCs have important applications as refrigerants, heat transfer fluids, and blowing agents for insulating foams. They also are used for many other applications, such as solvents, propellants, and fire suppressants.

These gases absorb and re-emit infrared radiation emitted by the earth’s surface. Greater concentration levels in the atmosphere increase the "energy-trapping" capabilities of the lower tropospheric region of the atmosphere.

Climate change and variability occur naturally. Over thousands of years, periodic changes in the Earth’s orbit, and variations in the concentrations of GHGs have caused climate to change between ice ages and interglacial periods such as the current warm period. Over shorter periods, climate variability may be driven by factors such as volcanic eruptions and variability in solar output as well as such oscillations as El Niño.

The current concern stems from the potential for human activities (referred to as anthropogenic) to enhance the greenhouse effect. This effect could result in a climate shift beyond any experienced in recorded human history. Continuation of the current trends in the use of fossil fuels and other human activities will lead to increased concentrations of GHGs equivalent to a doubling — or more — of CO₂ levels from pre-industrial values during the twenty-first century. While some uncertainty remains as to the influence of human activities on climate, significant scientific opinion supports the view that some effect already is discernible.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established to assess information on climate change, to provide reliable, relevant (and unbiased) information on all aspects of the climate change issue. The IPCC is an independent international body, cosponsored by the United Nations Environment Programme, the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The most recent full assessment report issued by the IPCC in 1996 was prepared and reviewed by more than 2000 experts

According to the IPCC, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has increased by about 30% over the past 200 years, primarily from burning fossil fuels and deforestation; the atmospheric concentration of CO₂ is increasing at about 0.4% per year. The concentration of CH₄ has increased by about 145% and the current rate of increase is about 0.6% per year. The concentration of N₂O has increased by about 15% and the current rate of increase is about 0.25% per year. The atmospheric concentration of CO₂ would be more than double from the level of 200 years ago by the end of the next century if current trends in the use of fossil fuel continue. Increases in fuel use in developed countries and rapidly growing usage rates in developing countries are both concerns. The concentrations of fluorochemicals, including fluorocarbon gases and sulfur hexafluoride, also are contributing to the enhanced greenhouse effect.

Carbon dioxide and some of the other GHGs will remain in the atmosphere for many decades or even centuries. Therefore, if actions are taken at some future time in response to observations of a human-caused global climate change, the warming effects would continue to become more severe for decades and could persist for more than a century. The magnitude, timing and regional characteristics of climate change are very uncertain. Considering the possible range of future GHG emissions and the uncertainty in the climate response to these emissions, global average surface temperature could increase by the year 2100 by 1-3.5 °C (1.8-6.3 °F). Correspondingly, sea levels could rise by 15-95 cm (6-37") by the end of the next century. Impact estimates range from minor to very significant and even catastrophic.

Although many uncertainties limit the ability to determine the extent to which climate changes have been influenced by humans, a signal of a human-induced change is emerging from the noise of climate variability. Detection of a human influence involves a comparison of patterns of observed changes in climate with what is expected, based on the current understanding of the climate system. The uncertainties result from a limited understanding of natural variability, the influence of human activity on the increasing concentrations of GHGs and small particles in the atmosphere, and the climate response to these increases. Although progress is expected in understanding the climate system, resolution of the major policy-relevant issues is likely to take well over a decade. The buildup of GHGs in that period could have severe consequences.

2.0 INTERNATIONAL POLICY ACTIONS

In 1990, the United Nations General Assembly established an Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee to work towards the formation of a Framework Convention on Climate Change. A Convention agreement was adopted in May 1992, which was signed by countries at the June 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, and 176 countries (including the U.S.) have ratified it. The Convention’s mission is to "protect the climate system for present and future generations."

The agreement established a continuing process, working through the periodic convening of diplomatic-level representatives of countries. Each such meeting is referred to as a Conference of the Parties (COP). The first one (COP-1) was held in 1995, at which the "Berlin Mandate" was adopted to strengthen the original Convention’s declaration by agreeing to work toward an international legal instrument (Protocol) by or at the third meeting (COP-3).

In 1997 in Kyoto, Japan, a Protocol was agreed (The Kyoto Protocol). It commits developed countries to specific reduction of emissions of global warming gases during the period 2008-2012. The Protocol enters into force when at least 55 countries, representing at least 55% of the developed countries' 1990 CO₂-equivalent emissions, have ratified it. The overall international CO₂-equivalent reduction to be met during 2008-2012 is 5.2% from the 1990 level comprised of varying individual country reductions. Six greenhouse gases (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, HFCs, PFCs, and SF₆) are specifically covered by the Protocol. Chlorofluorocarbons and HCFCs were not included in the Kyoto Protocol but are addressed in the Montreal Protocol. Countries have the option of allowing calculations for HFCs, PFCs and SF₆ to be based on 1995 emission levels.

The Kyoto Protocol does not mandate specific policies or measures for individual countries to accomplish the reductions. Instead, each country is given flexibility to institute policies and measures that best suit its unique situation. Future COP meetings are scheduled to negotiate further details and implementation of the Protocol.

3.0 RELEVANCE TO THE BUILDING TECHNOLOGIES

Climate change is the second global atmospheric issue to impact buildings and the heating, refrigerating, and air-conditioning practices in recent years. The first was stratospheric ozone depletion, which resulted in adoption of the Montreal Protocol. To address the ozone issue, the industry developed replacements for CFC dependence. It redesigned equipment to use alternative refrigerants, designed products that greatly reduce refrigerant emissions, and implemented recovery and recycling procedures to significantly reduce refrigerant releases.

Buildings should be evaluated based on their projected energy requirements and emission of refrigerants. HVAC&R systems contribute GHG releases directly and indirectly through energy-related effects and directly through the effect of refrigerant losses.

The release-related contributions to climate change are addressed by minimizing emissions of refrigerants (that have global warming characteristics) from systems or processes into the atmosphere. The lowest release-related impacts can be achieved by incorporating rigorous refrigerant conservation measures during design, manufacture, installation, operation, service, recovery and ultimate disposal.

Energy-related impacts (contribution to CO₂ releases) are addressed by reducing the energy consumption of equipment, systems, and buildings and by modifying user behavior. HVAC&R technologies provide the tools for the design and application of comprehensive energy-savings techniques in buildings and for the selection and proper use of energy efficient equipment and system integration.

Both release-related and energy-related effects must be considered in a life cycle environmental approach. Primary are those factors that affect the energy consumed in the operation of the building during its useful lifetime in addition to the selection of energy-efficient equipment. Contributing factors as part of the design process are choices in building envelope alternatives, types of insulating materials, lighting and daylighting, glazing and fenestration, natural ventilation and energy-recovery opportunities, and operational issues such as temperature control, environmental quality. All of these considerations have an impact on the HVAC&R requirements.

Additional considerations in the choices (or options) in building design and operation are any excessive environmental consequences associated with the production or manufacture of building components.

4.0 ASHRAE’s ROLE AND ACTIVITIES

A significant portion of energy consumed is utilized in buildings, resulting in substantial contributions to CO₂ emissions. In the U.S., buildings account for approximately one-third of annual energy usage totals. Although many refrigerants are more potent GHGs than CO₂ (on a per molecule basis), the GHG contributions resulting from the emission of HFCs are a few percent.

However, ASHRAE’s energy efficiency activities have a significant bearing on GHG emissions. ASHRAE and its 50,000 members have the opportunity to make a marked contribution to reducing GHG emissions.

4.1 Standards and Guidelines. As a standards-writing organization (accredited by the American National Standards Institute), ASHRAE currently has more than 90 published standards and guidelines, and another 30 under development. Many address the testing of HVAC&R equipment and/or systems: others are directed to design and operation. In the latter group, the energy characteristics of buildings are addressed as well as emission control practices for refrigerants.

For twenty-five years, the Society has promulgated design and test standards for reducing energy consumption in buildings. Standard 90 "Energy Efficient Design in New Buildings" was initially published in 1975. In subsequent editions, the standard was separated into a standard for a broad class of commercial buildings (90.1) and a standard for simpler residential structures (90.2). Standard 100 "Energy Conservation in Existing Buildings" provides criteria to conserve non-renewable energy in existing buildings, with an emphasis on programs for efficient operation, maintenance and monitoring of energy systems. Through the years, the standards have served as resources for code-writing organizations and have been used by the U.S. government for Federal buildings and as a basis of mandated national levels of building energy efficiency.

ASHRAE Guideline 3 "Guideline for Reducing Emission of Fully Halogenated Chlorofluorocarbon Refrigerants" addresses refrigerant emission reduction practices in the design, installation and servicing of equipment. ASHRAE’s Standard 15 "Safety Code for Mechanical Refrigeration" includes information on the safe use and handling of refrigerants in buildings. New refrigerants, developed as replacements for CFCs, are included in recent editions of the standard.

4.2 Research. Employing funds raised in the private sector, ASHRAE’s research program currently has over $9-million U.S. dollars in projects underway. The research is conducted at universities and independent research organizations. The funded projects are identified as priority (non-proprietary) needs by those in the broad HVAC&R industry.

4.3 Technology Transfer. Providing a variety of vehicles for the broad dissemination of new and emerging technologies in a timely manner is an important function of ASHRAE. These vehicles include technical presentations at Society meetings (at the international, regional and local levels), the printed word, electronic communications and opportunities for continuing education.

The ASHRAE Handbooks, published in four volumes, are updated on a four-year cycle, with one newly updated volume produced each year. The ASHRAE Transactions document the technical and symposia papers of semi-annual Society-level meetings. The Society produces a quarterly International Journal of HVAC&R Research and the monthly ASHRAE Journal. Special publications include, such items as design manuals, guidance documents, user manuals for understanding complex standards.

Issues, such as stratospheric ozone depletion, have accelerated the normal evolution processes of new technology and the need to transfer new technology in a timely manner. The climate change issue is similarly expected to impact the HVAC&R technical base over an extended period.

5.0 CONSIDERATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

ASHRAE will take a lead role in addressing the sources of building-related emissions. Doing so, requires that ASHRAE undertake identification, research, development, and dissemination of the technologies, related standards, methods and data to control emissions. The focus must address the entire building including the heating, ventilating, and cooling loads and the systems that provide comfort control. Moreover, the approach must be independent of proprietary interests in specific solutions, and instead, must be guided by the public welfare.

ASHRAE, as an international organization, will lead in providing information on related building technologies throughout the world. ASHRAE will take a leadership role in promoting the use of life-cycle, environmental and economic impact assessments in building design and operation. The scientific evidence clearly suggests that responsible, cost-effective measures should be adopted in the building industry. Care must be taken to ensure that near-term economic concerns do not discount long-term environmental impacts.

ASHRAE will continue to emphasize improving energy efficiency/utilization in HVAC&R technology to minimize emission of CO2 from energy use; CO2 dominates the considerably smaller effects of releases of refrigerants that are GHGs. In addition, ASHRAE will continue to encourage the proper handling of all refrigerants to minimize losses to the atmosphere.

ASHRAE recommends that decision-makers carefully consider all environmental impacts prior to taking actions in response to climate change; e.g., it would be counterproductive to require that refrigerant substitutes have low global warming potentials (GWPs), which at the same time may result in higher energy requirements or compromised safety. Integrated assessments and balance are needed in addressing environmental issues to avoid solutions that remedy one problem at the expense of another.

ASHRAE will provide information and technology to support voluntary actions and the development of public policies.

APPROVED BY:

The Climate Change Position Document/Position Statement Committee – 22 June 1999

Technology Council – 23 June 1999

Board of Directors – 24 June 1999

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Revision Date: July 20, 1999

©1999 ASHRAE. All Rights reserved.